Thinking Out Loud: 2008 Lubbock City Elections
The City of Lubbock will hold an election on Saturday, May 10 along with other cities, area school districts, and water districts. Today I want to focus on the City of Lubbock election only. We have elections in City Council districts 2 and 4 as well as the Mayor.
My prediction: All three races could go to a June runoff election, and I believe that all three races will go to a runoff.
My reasoning is as follows. In the race for Mayor, David Miller and Tom Martin will be in pretty much a dead heat for the top spot — more or less a rematch of 2006. Roger Settler has enough name recognition to pull upwards of 20% of the vote. Two front-runners pulling roughly the same number of 80% of the voters plus a 20% candidate equals a runoff between Miller and Martin.
In City Council District 2, I anticipate a similar situation with two front-runners and a minor candidate. Incumbent Floyd Price and challenger Armando Gonzales will be the top contenders, and challenger Gilbert Salinas will draw just enough votes to force a runoff.
In City Council District 4, I anticipate a runoff between Paul Beane and Jerry Bell. I believe that there is no clear front-runner in this race — each candidate will basically bring out their own “base” of voters plus whatever uncommitted voters they can. I just think that Beane and Bell will draw the most votes. We will probably have a 40-40-30 or 35-33-32 type of situation.
What are your predictions for the 2008 City of Lubbock election?
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April 4th, 2008 at 7:23 am
I believe all 3 will go to a run-off as well. The mayor’s race could heat-up with Settler getting the “protest vote”. I will begin my Settler campaigning by shaking hands with voters wearing a Settler For Mayor button at various busy businesses like I did in this last election wearing Clif Burnett For County Chair(R) button. Handshake campaigns are much more effective that many believe. I’d like to see Mayor Miller aced out in the 4-way race and get Settler a one-on-one race with Martin. Then I will turn on my “Clif Burnett Mud Machine” and smear Tom Martin with his Martin/Boren costs to the city in the Ellerbrook fiasco. City had to pay 10 grand in outside lawyer fees just for Martin alone. Tom Martin does have baggage and him being a former Lubbock cop is a weakpoint I would point out on leaflets door-to-door. Both Miller and Martin have “chinks in their armor”. This mayor’s race could get INTERESTING. Wear a raincoat,my mud machine is working good,YEA BABY!
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